This paper investigates how demographic and other forms of compulsive behaviour and personality are related to the buying frequency of Le Millionaire scratch cards. We employ cross-sectional micro-data obtained from our Household drop-off survey with a sample size of 1007 observations to analyze consumer behavior with response to playing Le Millionaire. Consequently, we examine the double-hurdle model as an alternative to the Tobit model to analyze consumer behaviour in Le Millionaire market. The null hypothesis that the normal truncated double hurdle model is the correct specification is tested against the lognormal one. The Vuong tests clearly reject the null hypothesis of . This indicates that the lognormal double-hurdle model is the correct specification for studying consumer behavior in Le Millionaire market. Essentially, the “big-five” dimensions of personality traits, coupled with other factors such as age, gender, educational background, household income and marital status are found to play a sine qua non role in determining consumers’ behaviour in the scratch card market.

The paper compares the forecasting ability of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model and the Holt Winter’s method using aluminium consumption data from 1950 to 2010 for two major economies namely, USA and China. These forecasting models would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee future requirements of aluminium and design appropriate measures in this regard.

This paper analysis how short-run interest rates are used to manage the expectations of market participants in Turkey. The dynamic effects of short-run interest rates on the expected inflation, growth, exchange rate and interest rate for the period from August, 2001 to March, 2009 using the Turkish data are investigated. It is claimed that the response of expected growth of the economy is negative to short-run interest rate increases, expected inflation is positive. When an interest rate shock is given to the expected exchange rate and interest rate, both exhibit persistent properties.

Keywords: Interest rate, expectations, VECM.

JEL Classifications: E58, C32.

Abstract

 The deficit financing has been a distinguishing characteristic of developing economies because of resource constraint. Pakistan has incidentally been in a whirlpool of foreign debt since its emergence in 1947. It should have resolved its economics problems by now because of long distance it covered during more than sixty three years but unfortunately the situation has been aggravating with each day passed. The last two decades were in fact the loans carrying spans which burdened the economy beyond imagination and if the situation not checked it may endanger its sovereignty.

This paper will analyze the various aspects of foreign debts in context of economic growth achieved during the period and ultimate impact of foreign debt liabilities on the health of Pakistan’s Economy.

To arrive at conclusion secondary data available on official record of the Govt. of Pakistan will be preferred for analysis. The data can be obtained from within Pakistan and also from the lending agencies.